Vulnerability mapping and advisory for prioritization of investment in maize and sorghum growing areas of AGRA target countries: synthesis

Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasing extreme weather events are threatening human health and safety, food and water security and socio-economic development in Africa (WMO, 2020). Much of Africa has already warmed by more than 1 °C since 1901, with an increase in heatwaves and hot days. Extensive areas of Africa will exceed 2 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the last two decades of this century under medium scenarios. A reduction in precipitation is likely in many parts of Africa by the end of the century (WMO, 2020). Climate change may pose challenges in the continent’s quest to use agriculture as the mainstream opportunity to achieve food security and poverty reduction targets of the sustainable development goals. Agriculture in Africa remains mainly rainfall-dependent with 90% of staple food production coming from rain-fed farming systems (Rockström et al., 2010). Although factors like market and local preferences, capacity to invest, willingness to take risks and soil quality play an important role, climate variability and climate extremes induce crop failures and livestock deaths, causing economic losses and undermining food security in the continent, which are likely to become more severe as global warming continues unabated (Zougmoré et al., 2018).