The new goal: Opportunities to empower climate action in the horn of Africa and the Sahel for agriculture and nature under the NCQG

African nations, while contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, are disproportionately impacted by the socio-economic burdens of climate change. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, which serves as a crucial economic foundation for these countries, is heavily characterized by natural resource-dependent subsistence farming and pastoralism, which serves as the primary livelihood for an estimated 268 million people (FAO,2018). This renders AFOLU extremely vulnerable to climate change, causing detrimental impacts on both food security and socio-economic stability in the different regions of Africa.
Developing nations across Africa face substantial challenges in accessing necessary adaptation finance due to existing debt burdens and structural barriers. These constraints often force these countries to redirect limited fiscal resources toward addressing climate impacts. Considering the forthcoming New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) set to redefine global financing post-2025, COP29 and subsequent sessions offer critical opportunities to tackle the enduring challenges in mobilizing and accessing climate finance, specifically for nature-based solutions and agriculture, which are vital to countries in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel.
This policy brief—jointly developed by the Alliance of Biodiversity International and CIAT, Tree Aid, and supported by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR)—provides an assessment of the quantity and quality of climate finance flows directed toward Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and AFOLU sectors in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Through an extensive desk review and analysis of climate finance data from the OECD covering 2010 to 2022, this brief identifies critical barriers, funding gaps, and actionable recommendations for enhancing the mobilization and effective channeling of climate finance to these regions. Because of lack of adequate information on finance flow from the private sector, this policy brief focuses on public finance for AFOLU in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel.
The analysis examines key elements, including finance volumes, funding sources, instruments deployed, alignment with national adaptation and mitigation priorities, and the effectiveness of finance in delivering measurable outcomes for communities most affected by climate change. The brief further outlines strategic recommendations on optimizing the NCQG to mobilize global climate finance to support the AFOLU sector in these vulnerable regions, thereby strengthening climate resilience and promoting sustainable development pathways aligned with national and regional goals.

Seyoum, Y.Y.; Lauriciano, R.; Callaghan, C.; Chilambe, P.