Feeding a fast-growing population by 2050 through accelerated agricultural transformation: potential avenues for Ethiopia

In recent years, Ethiopia has recorded noteworthy progress in boosting agricultural productivity. Compared with many countries in Africa, Ethiopia’s achievement has been remarkable, especially considering the dire historical challenges, marked by the devastating famine in the 1980s. Despite notable strides in enhancing food production across the country, a significant segment of the population continues to face persistent food insecurity. The agricultural sector struggles to generate sufficient output to match the pace of population growth, facing challenges such as low yield, limited arable land, high population density intensified by persistently high fertility, environmental degradation, climate change, and water scarcity. Ethiopia stands at the forefront of Africa’s burgeoning population growth, with an estimated population of 213 million by mid-century, compared to 120 million people in 2023. In this chapter, we explore potential avenues for accelerated agricultural transformation. Our goal is to propose strategies that can enhance productivity, encourage off-farm employment opportunities, and augment agricultural output through value addition. We particularly emphasize the importance of land consolidation, inclusive structural changes in the agricultural sector, and a vibrant non-agricultural sector to absorb excess rural labour. Although this chapter primarily focuses on Ethiopia, we draw inferences and offer insights for other African countries where relevant.