Second in a blog series examining the potential consequences of the recently-proposed U.S. tariffs for global agrifood trade. Read the first post here.
The Trump administration’s ever-changing trade policies are now focused on China, in what looks to be a replay of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war that resulted in large losses for both countries. That conflict significantly diverted agricultural trade, as China sought other suppliers and the U.S. attempted to find new markets for its products. Each country’s current tariffs targeting the other now far exceed the highest levels of that previous trade war. Depending on their duration, these measures could have serious impacts on the economies of the United States, China, and the global trading system as a whole.
Agricultural trade is at the center of the conflict, as the U.S. is the second-largest supplier of agricultural commodities to China (after Brazil), and China is one of the largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports. This post focuses on the potentially large impacts the new tariffs on global oilseed flows could have on China and the U.S., as well as on other major oilseed exporting and importing countries.