Practitioners weigh in on Anticipatory Action: Is it a game-changer for disaster risk reduction or wishful thinking?

In commemoration of the International Day of Disaster Risk Reduction, IWMI hosted its second and final webinar in a two-part series for the year. This session built on the discussions from the first webinar, bringing together practitioners from government, humanitarian organizations, academia, and CGIAR to question whether Anticipatory Action (AA) is a viable strategy for disaster resilience or just an ambition.

“Our challenge lies in understanding disaster risk. Traditionally, disaster management has emphasized humanitarian relief, overlooking the need for effective disaster risk reduction. While relief efforts assist those affected, they fail to address the root causes of disasters, hindering our ability to take proactive action.” — Mr. Daniel Obot, Director of Disaster Risk Reduction at the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Abuja, Nigeria.

As global crises intensify, the need for effective disaster risk reduction has never been clearer. AA is a proactive approach that uses early warnings to safeguard communities before crises escalate. Governments are increasingly urged to integrate AA into their policy frameworks with hopes that will enhance the resilience of Food, Land, and Water Systems (FLWSs) and reduce the impacts on vulnerable populations. However, the true test lies not only on policy inclusion but in ensuring practical implementation.

On Monday, October 7, 2024, IWMI and the CGIAR’s Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration  (FCM), in collaboration with the Anticipation Hub, hosted a webinar titled “When Governments Talk Anticipatory Action: The Silver Bullet for Disaster Risk Reduction or Just Wishful Thinking?” The session explored whether AA can truly strengthen disaster resilience or if it remains a bureaucratic ambition.

What did we learn from the Webinar?

Moving beyond reactive approaches: Pakistan’s success in AA

One of the key insights from the webinar was the shift away from reactive disaster management. In response to the devastating 2022 floods, Pakistan has embedded AA within its national disaster management framework. Mr. Idrees Mehsud, Head of Disaster Risk Reduction at Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), emphasized the role of national and provincial AA coordination forums. These platforms have fostered collaboration between government agencies and humanitarian organizations, resulting in successes like the pre-emptive evacuation of over 80,000 people before Cyclone Biparjoy in 2023.

“The establishment of a national coordination forum for anticipatory action marks a significant shift towards proactive disaster management,” Mehsud stated, stressing Pakistan’s commitment to saving lives through AA.

Regional coordination

“The establishment of a regional roadmap for anticipatory action provides a strategic framework for countries to align their policies with global best practices.” — Dr. George Otieno, Thematic Lead for Anticipatory Action at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

In East Africa, regional coordination plays a pivotal role in implementing AA. IGAD has developed a regional disaster risk strategy that aligns with the Sendai Framework and the IGAD multi-hazard early warning system. These frameworks guide member states in effectively implementing AA while addressing various hazards. Additionally, they developed a regional roadmap that helps harmonize efforts, allowing countries to learn from each other’s successes and challenges, ultimately strengthening disaster preparedness across the region.

Challenges in implementation of AA

Despite the growing recognition of AA as a powerful tool, its implementation faces hurdles. One pressing challenge is convincing governments to allocate resources for AA. Mr. Daniel Obot of Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency pointed out that the understanding of disaster risk remains limited in many countries, resulting in a preference for reactive measures over proactive action. Without empirical evidence showcasing AA’s full benefits, securing funding and political support is difficult. Additionally, Dr. Otieno noted that AA is still evolving in many institutions, and in fragile or conflict-affected regions, limited resources and competing priorities make it even harder to prioritize.

Critical takeaways for effective AA

“The goal is to ensure that AA is not only scientifically sound but also operationally feasible.”– Dr. Decide Mabumbo, IWMI

Building on the critical points raised by the panelists, guest speakers identified several key themes essential for making AA effective in practice:

Data and research. Data and research are critical in guiding AA decisions and providing evidence to support its integration into government policy. For example, cost-benefit analyses are crucial in demonstrating the long-term savings from AA, which can be compelling for stakeholders. Robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems also ensure continuous learning and refinement of AA strategies to better address evolving disaster risks.

Building trust in forecasting services. Data and research are critical in guiding AA decisions and providing evidence to support its integration into government policy. For example, cost-benefit analyses are crucial in demonstrating the long-term savings from AA, which can be compelling for stakeholders. Robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems also ensure continuous learning and refinement of AA strategies to better address evolving disaster risks.

Governance and political dynamics. Governance and political economy are key drivers of AA. Effective governance must balance short-term disaster mitigation with long-term climate adaptation. Understanding political dynamics and building strong partnerships will ensure AA’s integration into national disaster management systems.

Multi-hazard approaches. Disasters are complex and interconnected, so multi-hazard approaches are necessary for building resilience. AA strategies must be comprehensive and address multiple threats simultaneously. Aligning AA protocols with regional and global best practices ensures consistency and effectiveness.

Community involvement. Local communities play a pivotal role in AA’s success. Engaging local stakeholders ensures that early action plans are relevant and practical. Cross-border collaboration, particularly in regions facing shared hazards, enables countries to work together to tackle common challenges.

Collaborative efforts. Finally, the success of AA depends on collaboration across all sectors. Governments, humanitarian organizations, researchers, and local communities must work together to ensure a holistic approach. Embedding AA into sector-specific strategies, such as agriculture or water management, can drive systemic changes and lead to more sustainable outcomes.

Looking ahead: Continuing the conversation

As discussions on AA progress, the emphasis remains on practical implementation. On October 17, IWMI will collaborate with partners such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Sudan Urban Development Think-Tank (SUDTT), and Resurgence at the 12th Global Dialogue Platform. Our session will focus on “Trusting Information in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: How Insecurity and Grievance Can Shape Anticipatory Action Efforts.”

We’re also excited to announce a new podcast series with Global Dispatches and Mark Goldberg, exploring how pre-emptive actions can lessen the impacts on the most vulnerable in conflict zones. The series will highlight discussions and stories on transitioning from fragility to stability. You can listen to the episodes here.

Don’t miss the upcoming episode, “How Can Acting Before Crises Reduce Impacts on the Most Vulnerable?” set for release on October 17, aligning with the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty.

To continue the conversation, click this link to watch the full webinar and discover how AA can be integrated into disaster risk reduction frameworks to foster more resilient communities.

Author: Ngowenani Nohayi (Research Officer – Policy and Water Governance, IWMI)

Top photo: CGIAR FCM Initiative.