Participatory foresight analysis to identify near-market segments for cowpea in Western Africa

Participants in the workshop for cowpea product design teams in Western Africa on September 29, 2024, in the IITA offices in Cotonou, Benin Republic. (Photo)

Sika Gbegbelegbe, Dean Muungani

Investments in crop breeding are usually expensive and take 7 to 10 years to yield results. However, market preferences tend to change over time due to various drivers including income changes, urbanization, and climate change. Therefore, market segments identified that were based on historical data are likely to change after 7 to 10 years. The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) organized a workshop to support product design teams (PDTs) for cowpea in Western Africa in identifying near-future market segments.

The workshop, entitled “Eliciting Near-Future Market Segments for Cowpea in Western Africa,” took place September 29, 2024, in the IITA offices in Cotonou (Benin Republic). Prior to the workshop, background work was conducted to define near-future trends for key biophysical and socioeconomic drivers that are likely to affect cowpea production and consumption in Western Africa. At the workshop, the PDTs used participatory foresight to help them identify near-future market segments.

The background research done prior to the workshop showed that climatic risks are projected to worsen in Western Africa by the 2030s compared with 1985, with mean temperature increasing and rains projected to become more erratic. In terms of socioeconomic drivers, the target countries are projected to have varying levels of urbanization, population density, and per capita income by the 2030s. The research results were shared with the PDTs to elicit near-future market segments. All PDTs started the exercise using validated current market segments as the baseline.

The PDTs largely agreed with these projections on climatic risks and socioeconomic drivers, and some were already incorporating them in their breeding efforts. However, the Niger PDT team noted that near-future socioeconomic trends will be strongly influenced by recent government policies that are bound to transform agriculture in Niger. The 3N Initiative: Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens, aims to combat hunger and poverty, including policies to enhance the efficiency of agricultural value chains within the country to improve food security.

Nigeria and Niger, the two largest cowpea producing countries in the world, retained the names of their current market segments for their near-future market segments but changed the essential traits and features linked to the market segments. One example in the case of Nigeria is related to the market segment “Medium duration white and brown cowpea for food adapted to Sudan Savanna and Guinea savanna: homemade flour,” For that market segment, the PDT added a feature to consider apart from breeding traits: mechanization and agronomy.

The PDTs for the other countries, namely Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, and Mali, adjusted the names of their current market segments and, apart from Burkina Faso, adjusted the essential traits/features to align with the near-future market trends.