Climate, Peace, and Fragility in Egypt: Shaping a Path Forward

Towards an Integrated Research Agenda  

Egypt faces a confluence of challenges compounding with climate change risks: absolute water scarcity, food insecurity, rapid urbanization, as well as a burgeoning population growing by a million every 6-8 months and estimated to reach 160 million by 2050. Climate change has been linked to a range of security issues – water, food, economic and livelihood insecurity, enhancing environmental, social, and economic fragility and places pressures on policymakers. Moreover, conflicts and economic fragility affecting surrounding countries in the region have led to a migrant and refugee population of approximately 9 million. With issues such as drought, land degradation, and transboundary resource sharing serving as significant drivers of migration that compound existing geopolitical tensions, the intricate relationship between climate change and human mobility becomes increasingly clear.   

Developing a research agenda that integrates climate, peace, and fragility becomes critical to inform policy, enhance adaptive capacities, and promote resilience among vulnerable populations. To this end, on November 26, 2024, CGIAR’s MENA Regional Climate Security Hub brought together stakeholders engaged in science and knowledge production in Egypt to reassess Egypt’s research agenda on climate change and to discuss the beginnings of a comprehensive research agenda focused on the intersections of climate change, peace, and fragility in Egypt. The initiative aims to drive targeted early action and bolster resilience against climate-related vulnerabilities. 

Framing Climate Risks in Egypt 

Egypt already experiences a range of climate impacts, including rising temperatures, particularly during the summer months, as well as extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and severe water scarcity. Egypt’s Third National Communication on Climate Change (Ministry of Environment, 2016) further identifies sea level rise of up to 1 m by the year 2100, leading to land subsidence in the Nile Delta and saltwater intrusion into coastal groundwater and soils. In addition to this, the country must brace for extreme climatic events as climate change impacts the country must prepare for.  

Egypt’s Government recognizes the gravity of these challenges and has engaged in comprehensive efforts to address them through its National Climate Change Strategy 2050 and the additional goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 33% by 2030. Given that energy sector is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Egypt, representing 64.5 % of total emissions, Egypt’s emphasizes the support of an energy transition that aims to increase the use of renewable energy to support sustainable growth and low-carbon development. Additional goals are to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience, climate change action governance, climate financing infrastructure, as well as science, knowledge, and technology transfer.  

Spotlight on the Climate, Peace and Fragility Nexus 

Climate change intensifies ongoing issues like water scarcity, impacting agricultural productivity—essential to Egypt’s economy and livelihoods—and challenging the nation’s capacity for adaptive responses.  According to the World Bank, Egypt’s Nile Delta is recognized as one of the world’s three most extreme vulnerability hotspots. With the Nile River providing about 97% of the country’s freshwater resources—vital for agriculture that employs roughly 55% of the labor force, potential climate change impacts on the Nile’s flow, combined with higher evaporation rates, could have detrimental impacts for Egypt’s water, food, and economic security.  

The interplay between climate change, peace, and security has emerged as a pressing concern in Egypt, where environmental stressors are increasingly viewed as threat multipliers that exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and societal tensions. As climate change impacts—such as water scarcity, land degradation, and extreme weather events—intensify, they can lead to heightened competition for natural resources, potentially fueling conflicts and undermining social cohesion. It is estimated that a 0.5-meter rise in sea levels could displace between 2 to 4 million Egyptians by 2050, as shown in a report by the Climate Centre. 

Given that a significant percentage of Egypt’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, challenges in this sector due to climate impacts can exacerbate food insecurity and economic instability. Furthermore, the influx of refugees and migrants, driven by climate-related challenges from neighboring regions, adds another layer of complexity to Egypt’s peace and resilience landscape. Addressing the nexus of climate, peace, and security is vital for fostering a stable and resilient society. Prioritizing research and policies that focus on these interconnected issues will not only aid in mitigating risks but also promote inclusive development, ensuring that vulnerable populations can adapt to changing conditions while maintaining social harmony. 

Workshop Objectives 

The workshop brought together a diverse array of stakeholders, including researchers, academic institutions, NGOs, and experts from UN agencies. The goals were to contextualize critical research themes by identifying climate change impacts, pre-existing vulnerabilities, and potential fragility outcomes. Working in groups, participants were asked to:  

• map existing research initiatives that intersect with climate change and livelihood security, urban fragility, and migration. 

• identify research gaps and highlight projects that had the potential for upscaling to effectively address these challenges. 

• design potential a future research project covering identified key research questions and objectives, proposing relevant research methodologies. 

The event further aimed to establish a robust network of Egyptian researchers, scholars, and youth leaders committed to advancing the climate, peace, and security agenda in Egypt and the MENA region. 

Identifying Key Research Areas 

This workshop sought to identify and explore research initiatives and goals pertaining to three key research areas: 

1. Climate Change and Livelihood Security: How did climatic changes affect agriculture, livestock farming, and fisheries in Egypt?
2. Climate Change and Urban Fragility: In what ways did climate change exacerbate vulnerabilities within urban settings?
3. Climate Change, Migration, and Displacement: How did climate impact migration patterns and contribute to displacement?

 Research participants identified fragilities and social vulnerabilities in relation to the three key areas identified above.  

In the context of Climate Change and Livelihood Security, participants identified particularly smallholder farmers, women and children, as well as people working in the informal sector as particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Exacerbated water scarcity, triggered by climate change impacts, was seen as a main contributor to fragility risks in Egypt. Scientists emphasized that water scarcity would lead to increased food insecurity, more competition over resource access, growing inequalities, creating additional burdens on vulnerable groups as well as on water management systems, causing livelihood and productivity losses and exacerbating economic fragility. The scientists in the room identified a better understanding of sources of vulnerability, sources of conflict and tension in this context, ways to strengthen collaboration among community members working in agri-food-systems, as well as the impact of climate change and water scarcity on family dynamics and social ties as research gaps. Potential research projects formulated as part of the exercise included an assessment of biodiversity and local breeds in building more resilient agri-food-system livelihoods, an assessment of sources of tensions and social cohesion in response to climate change impacts in Egyptian climate change hotspots, and a gender assessment on the empowerment of women in value chains of medicinal and aromatic plant production in Egypt’s rural areas. 

Climate Change and Urban Fragility is a research topic that also remains under-explored in Egypt. Fragility may be caused by direct climate change effects on urban areas caused by the urban heat island effect, prolonged heatwaves, or heavy rainfalls, which affect the health and well-being of vulnerable groups – such as the elderly, women, children, as well as people living in in informal and under-serviced areas. Moreover, coastal cities are at risk from direct damage to infrastructure and cultural heritage sites as a consequence of sea level rise. Further, migration to cities from rural areas affected by climate change adds additional reasons for vulnerability and fragility. The group further discussed the impact of climate change on public services in cities, including water quantity and quality, as well as electricity delivery. In this context, compounding risks emerge through the interrelationship between environmental risks (pollution, urban resource mismanagement, mismanagement of urban greenspace and biodiversity, lack of environmental justice), economic risks (unemployment, informal sector employment, industrial pollution, lack of supportive business environment for green economy), and social risks (social classism and elitism, housing sector policies and dynamics, structural and gender inequalities, unequal access to resources and services through commercialization, loss of heritage). A perceived gap in the development of policies, institutions, and enabling policy environments was perceived as an additional risk. As resulting fragility outcomes participants identified health risks, increases in crime, social distrust, and social tensions, an exacerbation of vulnerabilities of already vulnerable and marginalized groups, and potential tensions related to the dissatisfaction with public services under pressure. A research topic that was discussed as central was concerned an assessment of the obstacles in designing an equitable and resilient-built environment considering growing climate threats. 

 The group working on Climate, Migration, and Displacement discussed the different types of migration climate change enhances and identified a list of push and pull factors that drive migration and fragility in the context of Egypt. Group participants emphasized that climate change impacts compound with other push factors. These include economic insecurity, lack of job opportunities, the mismanagement of local resources, deeper structural inequalities (including gender inequality), resource access and land rights, land fragmentation, as well as a lack of infrastructure and security. How these factors intersect and interact in Egypt remains insufficiently well understood – both in respect to people moving to and from Egypt. Migration and displacement processes were linked to a potential decrease in social cohesion, as people on the move seek to establish livelihoods in host communities, increased resource stress and food insecurity, political instability, an increase in health problems, and overburdened service provision systems. In this context, it was particularly the most marginalized groups that were most vulnerable. A loss of biodiversity was identified as a contributor to enhanced ecosystem fragility. In terms of potential research projects on the topic, the group proposed an assessment of the role of climate change in women’s mobility in Egypt’s Delta. Such a project would improve our understanding of the most affected sectors, types of employment most at risk from climate change impacts, mobility paths, as well as the locations and types of livelihoods in which displaced populations end up. 

A Path Forward 

The workshop served as a concerted effort from all stakeholders involved, promoting proactive measures that bolster resilience, foster sustainable development, and address the underlying vulnerabilities that impede progress.  

The outcomes of this workshop were poised to shape a research strategy for the MENA Regional Climate Security Hub. It sought to contribute to knowledge products that illuminated the intersections of climate, peace, and fragility in Egypt while creating a collaborative network that would enhance research capabilities and promote actionable insights to support policy and programming. 

 As Egypt continues to navigate the complexities brought about by climate change, understanding the delicate dynamics at play is crucial. By fostering informed dialogue and collaborative research, the workshop represented an essential step toward building a more resilient Egypt—one that prioritizes climate adaptation, promotes social equity, and secures livelihoods for future generations. 

 Going forward, addressing climate challenges from a research perspective requires a multi-tiered approach. Engaging local communities, migrants, and refugees in research processes will ensure that findings are context-specific and applicable. Establishing multidisciplinary research teams will provide comprehensive insights into the interconnections between climate change, migration, and urban planning. Additionally, universities and research institutions can forge partnerships with policymakers to translate research findings into actionable policies and programs. Initiatives such as climate resilience training for farmers, urban planners, and community leaders can empower vulnerable groups to adopt adaptive practices. Furthermore, securing funding for long-term research projects and pilot programs by engaging various donors such as international organizations and the private sector will facilitate the necessary innovations to mitigate risks and enhance adaptive capacities. Together, these measures can form a robust framework for addressing climate-related challenges in Egypt, ultimately leading to a more sustainable and equitable future. 

Authors: Sara Rabie, Martina Jaskolski, Salma Kadry  (Alliance of Bioversity & CIAT)

Acknowledgements  

This work was carried out with support from the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR). We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: https://www.cgiar.org/funders/