CGIAR evidence backs call to protect 90 million people on the frontlines of the climate crisis

More than 90 million refugees and forcibly displaced people are currently exposed to high or extremely high levels of climate-related hazards, according to analysis carried out by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM). This daunting number is part of the evidence underpinning a new report calling on climate negotiators, funders, and policymakers to protect and scale up solutions for the world’s most vulnerable populations, including those who have been forcibly displaced.

When Shamsa Amina Ali, 38, arrived in Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camp, she thought the move would be temporary. She decided to come to the camp after prolonged droughts withered her crops and killed her livestock. However, after another failed rainy season, she realizes she cannot go back:

“I cannot go back to Somalia because the challenges are still there,” she said. “The drought is still there. My farm, animals, and even my house have been destroyed, so there is nothing to go back to.”

Ali is but one of millions who face similar challenges. Her story is included in a new report, No escape: On the frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement, published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and built on evidence provided by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM) and other key partners.

By giving voice to women such as Ali and presenting rigorous evidence on how climate change affects millions of forcibly displaced people, this report underscores that the climate crisis is a human crisis. How someone experiences the climate crisis depends on who they are and where they live.

During a launch event at the 29^th Climate Change Conference (COP 29) earlier this week, the report’s authors called on global actors to include and invest in the people at the frontlines of conflict and climate change, while urgently reducing carbon emissions to put the brakes on the climate emergency.

“We have to use this evidence and data to coerce decision-makers into making decisions that they have been reluctant to make thus far,” said Special Advisor to the High Commissioner for Refugees on Climate Action Andrew Harper about the new report. “This includes ensuring that funding goes to where it is needed—at the scale that the climate crisis warrants—and that it is accountable to affected populations.”

Providing evidence on a complex and growing challenge

As detailed in the report, FCM researchers project that the adverse effects of climate change will grow over the next 20 years. At the same time, nearly half of all forcibly displaced people were by mid-2024 already living in countries where they were exposed to both climate-related hazards and to conflict.

As increasingly frequent extreme weather events escalate, particularly in the Americas, West-Central Africa, and Southeast Asia, more people will be forced to leave their homes in the future.

“We know that climate change impacts will intensify in the coming years and decades, and our research clearly indicates this will mean disproportionate risks and impacts on displaced people and their hosts. Yet, these populations are not considered in national climate plans and policies. That’s what we hope to change,” said Alessandro Craparo, CGIAR climate scientist and key contributor to FCM.

What’s more, as FCM researchers found, forcibly displaced people are increasingly left with nowhere safe to go. While major climate hazards and conflicts force them to leave their homelands—for example Venezuela, Afghanistan, and Myanmar—climate change is having equally devastating impacts in neighboring countries. This is especially evident for people forcibly displaced from Myanmar: 72 percent find themselves in Bangladesh, where climate-related hazards are classified as extreme.

The increasingly prominent role of climate change—as both a contributing driver of displacement and a vulnerability multiplier affecting already displaced people—has prompted UNHCR to seek out partnership with FCM. Leveraging FCM’s rigorous climate research allows the agency to stay well informed while carrying out its life-saving mandate, and it lends credibility to its calls for increased support.

“Combining UNHCR’s displacement expertise and operational presence with CGIAR’s research capacity and innovative solutions is critical for strengthening protection, preparedness, and response for displaced communities and their hosts,” stated Harper. “By filling critical gaps in climate expertise, FCM is creating a clearer picture of the current and future challenges faced by displaced populations. Together, we are working toward enhanced evidence-based advocacy, risk analysis, programming, and protection.”

Report contributors urge global stakeholders to act

While UNHCR has led the report development, FCM and other key contributors have provided underpinning evidence. The report has also benefitted from contributions and guidance from refugee-led organizations and displaced communities.

Together, these partners have formulated four urgent calls to action:

• Protect displaced people fleeing in the context of climate change impacts and disasters by applying and adapting existing legal tools.
• Include the voices and specific needs of displaced populations and host communities in climate finance and policy decisions.
• Invest in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
• Accelerate the reduction of carbon emissions to prevent climate disaster and to avert and minimize further displacement.

FCM’s contributions to the report are part of the initiative’s ongoing efforts to provide UNHCR with the evidence needed to boost the agency’s advocacy for forcibly displaced people struggling in the face of climate change impacts.

“The risks posed by the impacts of climate change, as well as solutions needed to address them, vary widely, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected settings. A nuanced understanding of these differences is crucial to ensure that climate action is inclusive and effective, ensuring that everyone is protected from severe harm,” explained Craparo.

Notably, FCM researchers have developed global hotspot maps that quickly and effectively communicate where forcibly displaced people face climate and conflict risks. UNHCR included such maps in its Global Trends 2023 report, released earlier this year, and shared them in conversations with central climate actors such as the Green Climate Fund, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Economic Forum.

A long-term partnership for climate resilience

In addition to contributing evidence to seminal reports linking climate change, conflict, and forced displacement, FCM researchers are also providing UNHCR with analysis, vulnerability assessments, and evaluations to inform the agency’s strategic planning, climate-smart initiatives, and selection of priority countries for climate action.

For example, an FCM researcher seconded to UNHCR will be supporting the agency in rolling out an innovative insurance scheme, designed to protect refugees and forcibly displaced people against the adverse impacts of droughts.

The ongoing collaboration between CGIAR, including its Research Initiative on FCM, and UNHCR was formalized through a memorandum of understanding signed in April 2024.

Author: Marianne Gadeberg, Independent Communications Consultant. Photo Credit: © UNHCR/Samuel Otieno