Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, and Security in Somalia

The Horn of Africa, including Somalia, is affected by climate variability and change. The ND-GAIN Index ranks Somalia as one of the most vulnerable and least prepared countries worldwide. Agriculture is a key driving force of Somalia´s economy, supporting over 70% of the population. The frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as drought and highly unpredictable floods, have increased, undermining rainfed agriculture and pastoralist systems. Somalia is a highly fragile and conflict affected country, ranking first in the fragile state index and having ongoing conflict between the Islamic militant group Al-Shabaab, controlling territories in central and southern Somalia, and the coalition forces of the government, clan militias and the African Union.

The role of climate change in exacerbating the risks of instability has been stressed in the UN´s New Agenda for Peace and has featured in an explicit discussion within COP28. Climate impacts in Somalia continue to undermine food, land and water systems, lead to loss of livelihoods, additional pressure on natural resources with conflicts over land, pasture and water, and more climate induced displacements with increasing pressure on urban areas. It further reinforces existing socioeconomic inequalities, political power dynamics, fragility and grievances, while providing militant groups with opportunities of resource grabbing, enhancing recruitment and increasing their legitimacy acting as alternative relief providers. Projected increases in rainfall and temperature patterns indicate a high risk of overwhelming local adaptive capacities, especially with Somalia´s current conflicts, its fragile political situation and economic crisis. The compounding impacts of climate and conflict are inducing a high level of vulnerability and the need for enhanced conflict resolution, peacebuilding, climate adaptation and resilience-building measures.

The workshop aims to address the interconnected challenges of climate, peace and security through an integrated approach, highlighting the urgency of collaborative efforts of relevant actors along the Humanitarian Development Peace (HDP) Nexus. The event will be co-convened by the Somalia office of the President, FAO Somalia, IGAD-CAEP and CGIAR Focus Climate Security of the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT. Building on existing research, experts from the fields of climate, environment, agriculture, migration, gender, peace and conflict are invited to discuss and validate prevalent pathways leading from climate to insecurity dynamics, together with their potential research gaps. From a common understanding of the climate, peace and security risks in Somalia, the workshop aims to define leading principles of the climate, peace and security programming and identify specific action points to increase climate security sensitivity in policy, programs and investments. Through collaborative action the workshop aims to envision and develop concrete pathways towards a common agenda for climate, peace and security.