Initiative:

NEXUS Gains

Trade-off analyses and foresight methodologies

Work Package 1 (Analyzing WEFE nexus innovations using trade-off and foresight methodologies) supports planners, policymakers and public/private investors with customized foresight and trade-off analysis tools to plan, prioritize, assess, and scale-up sustainable interventions across water, energy, food, and ecosystems.

The challenge

The global water crisis, climate change, environmental degradation, food security, energy production, poverty, and inequalities are all interlinked. The challenge of understanding the benefits and trade-offs of interventions in this space, therefore, necessitates the development of new analytical ‘nexus’ tools to inform and guide solutions and policies. Implementing and scaling such solutions requires assessment of highly interconnected ecological, social, and economic processes using a systems approach. Systems (nexus) thinking helps identify linkages, interdependencies, feedback loops, and trade-offs at different scales, making it possible to determine and minimize unintended consequences that can jeopardize sustainability and food security, and possibly cause or exacerbate conflict.

Our research

Work Package 1 is co-developing methods for foresight and trade-off analyses to identify, assess, prioritize, and scale nexus interventions. These tools enable the identification of losses and gains under business-as-usual and alternative development pathways, across various sectors.

Research questions

  1. How can we increase access to comprehensive nexus assessments by a broader range of stakeholders?
  2. How can changes in biodiversity be evaluated at basin and national scales?
  3. What interventions can address nexus challenges and promote alternative food production strategies?

Outcomes

NEXUS Gains engaged with many actors to share information on potential foresight methodologies and trade-off tools in five basins to prioritize nexus interventions and alignment with ongoing government initiatives. This helped us select hydrological and water resources planning models and hydro-economic frameworks.

Environmental flow

A model for the entire Indus Basin has been developed, which analyzes dam operating rules, how water is shared between sectors, as well as environmental flow (e-flow) requirements. E-flow assessments support the identification of water needs of riverine ecosystems and associated ecosystem services. E-flow assessments were completed in the Ganges Basin in Western Nepal. For the Indus Basin, NEXUS Gains established a technical working group to share the results of e-flow assessments and manage its rollout in one reach of the Ravi River.

Pywr model

In the Incomati Basin, NEXUS Gains partnered with the University of Manchester to develop a Pywr model to support basin-wide decision making across the riparian states of Eswatini, South Africa, and Mozambique. Data have been collected for model simulation, and the tool can determine how much water is diverted to each sector and state, how much remains available for future activities, and the potential downstream impacts of basin development activities. The Pywr model is also being tested with technical teams in the Indus and Aral Sea basins.

In addition, the Initiative updated hydro-economic models (CGE-W) for the Indus and Blue Nile Basins and analyzed irrigation–energy trade-offs in Sudan. In Indus Basin, the water-agriculture tradeoff on reducing sugar cane and rice areas were also explored to take water out from agriculture.

NEXUS Gains also validated the SWAT+ hydrological model for three river basins (Indus, Ganges, and Ganges-Karnali). The SWAT+ model runs future scenarios derived jointly with technical staff from government agencies to support policy implementation. The dashboard is helping to better understand the nexus trade-offs at district scale level in the Ganges Basin, India.

Agrobiodiversity analysis

The agrobiodiversity solution hotspot tool has been developed for the Ganges Basin using the Agrobiodiversity Index and is being validated with government partners in India. This tool helps stakeholders identify and visualize the potential risks and opportunities of various measures to strengthen agrobiodiversity.

Work Package 1 innovations

  • Pywr modeling tool that supports analysis of trade-offs between WEFE sectors.
  • An environmental flow calculator to evaluate flow requirements to safeguard valuable ecosystem services.
  • An agrobiodiversity solution hotspot tool based on the Agrobiodiversity Index that integrates data on nutrition, agriculture, and genetic resources.

Contact us

Mohsin Hafeez: m.hafeez@cgiar.org

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