Initiative Result:

Protecting 90 million refugees on climate crisis frontlines

Climate adaptation & mitigation

Related Impact Areas

New evidence documents daunting crisis and validates urgent calls for protection of refugees and displaced people exposed to climate-related hazards.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM) has provided essential evidence that underpins the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)’s first-ever report on conflict, climate, and displacement. Decisively documenting that more than 90 million refugees and forcibly displaced people are exposed to high or extremely high levels of climate-related hazards has empowered UNHCR to up its advocacy: The agency urges climate negotiators, funders, and policymakers to protect and scale up solutions for these most vulnerable populations.

Of the world’s 120 million refugees and forcibly displaced people, 3 in 4 are currently residing in countries where they are exposed to high or extreme levels of climate-related hazards.

These daunting numbers are part of the scientific evidence provided by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM) and used by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for its new report: No escape: On the frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement.

The report, launched during the 29th Climate Change Conference (COP 29), reveals that forcibly displaced people are increasingly left with nowhere safe to go. While major climate hazards and conflicts force them to leave their homelands—for example Venezuela, Afghanistan, and Myanmar—climate change is having equally devastating impacts in neighboring countries. This is especially evident for people forcibly displaced from Myanmar: 72 percent find themselves in Bangladesh, where climate-related hazards are classified as extreme.

At the same time, by mid-2024, nearly half of all forcibly displaced people were already living in countries where they were exposed not only to climate-related hazards but also to conflict.

As the adverse effects of climate change grow in the next 20 years, and as extreme weather events escalate, particularly in the Americas, West-Central Africa, and Southeast Asia, even more people will be forced to leave their homes in the future.

The increasingly prominent role of climate change—as both a contributing driver of displacement and a vulnerability multiplier affecting already displaced people—is what has prompted UNHCR to seek out partnership with FCM. Leveraging FCM’s rigorous climate research allows the agency to stay well informed while carrying out its life-saving mandate, and it lends credibility to its urgent calls for increased support.

Combining UNHCR’s displacement expertise and operational presence with CGIAR’s research capacity and innovative solutions is critical for strengthening protection, preparedness, and response for displaced communities and their hosts. By filling critical gaps in climate expertise, FCM is creating a clearer picture of current and future challenges faced by displaced populations. — Andrew Harper, Special Advisor to the High Commissioner for Refugees on Climate Action.

Together, UNHCR, FCM, and other partners, including refugee-led organizations and displaced communities, are calling on global actors to include and invest in the people on the frontlines of conflict and climate change in four key ways:

Protect displaced people fleeing in the context of climate change impacts and disasters by applying and adapting existing legal tools.
Include the voices and specific needs of displaced populations and host communities in climate finance and policy decisions.
Invest in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
Accelerate the reduction of carbon emissions to prevent climate disaster and to avert and minimize further displacement.

FCM’s contributions to the report are part of the initiative’s ongoing efforts to provide UNHCR with the evidence needed to boost the agency’s advocacy for refugees and forcibly displaced people exposed to effects of the climate crisis.

Notably, FCM researchers have developed global hotspot maps that quickly and effectively communicate where forcibly displaced people face climate and conflict risks. UNHCR included such maps in its Global Trends 2023 report, released earlier this year, and shared them in conversations with central climate actors such as the Green Climate Fund, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Economic Forum.

In addition to contributing evidence to seminal reports linking climate change, conflict, and forced displacement, FCM researchers have also provided UNHCR with analyses, vulnerability assessments, and evaluations to inform the agency’s strategic planning, climate-smart initiatives, and selection of priority countries for climate action. For example, an FCM researcher seconded to UNHCR will be supporting the agency in rolling out an innovative insurance scheme, designed to protect refugees and forcibly displaced people against the adverse impacts of droughts.

This ongoing collaboration between CGIAR, including its Research Initiative on FCM, and UNHCR was formalized through a memorandum of understanding signed in April 2024.