NEXUS Gains turned a global scenario-building tool into a dashboard that shows ministries and other nexus stakeholders the potential consequences of alternative policy pathways.
Actors depending on and affecting outcomes in one part of the water–energy–food–ecosystems (WEFE) nexus implicitly also make decisions that affect other sectors in intricate ways that aren’t easy to foresee or understand. A tool like the FABLE calculator can help change that. The CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains and the Ethiopian FABLE team have developed a simplified scenario analysis tool that supports government and other actors in understanding the consequences of choosing alternative food and land-use pathways. A dashboard, developed with support from NEXUS Gains, converts the data from the model into eye-opening visual demonstrations of on-the-ground-impacts of different policy decisions.
Coherent policymaking is key to sustainable development – and coherence across the WEFE nexus is particularly essential. Under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Ethiopian policymakers are seeking to move the country toward a green, inclusive future. All WEFE sectors influence this, but success is ultimately shaped by their complex, and often obscure, interactions.
The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use and Energy (FABLE) Consortium is a global network of experts working together to co-develop national strategies aligned with global goals like the SDGs. Ethiopia is one of 23 FABLE member countries, and NEXUS Gains is a key supporter in the national effort. FABLE is also the name of a powerful tool: a spreadsheet-based calculator that experts use to quantify scenarios of agrifood systems and their future interactions within the WEFE nexus. Teams provide modeled national pathways to the global FABLE Secretariat for publication, and work with their governments to see how the learnings from the exercise can drive policy change.
In Ethiopia, NEXUS Gains has advanced both the tool and the capacity to use it. It has supported the national FABLE team, scientific activities like national food and land-use pathway reporting, and the customization of the FABLE tool to suit the needs of Ethiopian stakeholders.
An initial 2023 workshop co-facilitated with the FABLE Secretariat provided insights into the potential of assessing synergies and trade-offs between development targets. The workshop went beyond a technical introduction of the FABLE calculator to lively discussions on the country’s potential development pathways and stakeholder mapping for ongoing consultation.
“The objectives of FABLE are truly inspiring, as they encompass cross-cutting issues relevant to many research divisions within our institution… However, many of these issues stem from policy gaps and undefined development objectives… We hope to get insightful findings from the FABLE activities, to support us in addressing these issues.”
Professor Beyene Petros, Director, Policy Studies Institute, FABLE Ethiopia workshop, 31 July 2023
In parallel, NEXUS Gains researchers conducted a WEFE nexus analysis in Ethiopia’s Tana-Beles sub-basin. This region, a strategic economic corridor within the Blue Nile Basin, presents complex WEFE challenges that are well recognized by the government and is the focus geography of NEXUS Gains. The analysis revealed critical synergies and trade-offs among WEFE components in different areas of the basin and provided spatially explicit options to support food security and ecosystem restoration. The findings underscore the potential of strategic WEFE planning to deliver integrated solutions for sustainable development in the basin.
NEXUS Gains established an inter-institutional Technical Working Group as a sustainable platform for government agencies to lead model updates, pathways, and commitments for each sector. A series of collaborative meetings allowed sectoral representatives to assess current pathways and to see the impacts of their policies on other sectors. At the end of 2024, a ‘process outcome report’ was produced detailing the steps taken in refining the national pathways, promoting policy coherence around the pathways, and integrating these pathways into policy and national planning processes.
While the FABLE calculator provided the necessary data for national pathways, transforming numbers in a spreadsheet into actionable policy required visualization for greater impact. This led to the development of the FABLE dashboard for Ethiopia. Developed by NEXUS Gains, the dashboard is a user-friendly visualization tool designed to highlight the most critical data for policymakers. It displays all results based on the latest data and scenarios. Through a series of insightful graphics, it describes how the country can achieve its long-term development goals by 2050.
The list of participants in the FABLE platform, workshops, and Technical Working Group is extensive and includes major national actors like the Policy Studies Institute, Ministry of Planning and Development, Ministry of Water and Energy, and Ministry of Agriculture. The dashboard amplifies the reach of this research, making results accessible to a broader group of users, stakeholders, and policymakers.
Thanks to three years of dedicated work by NEXUS Gains, a deep understanding of the nexus approach has been cultivated – especially within the key ministries. One of the most significant outcomes of FABLE is the heightened awareness among a broad range of stakeholders of the power of cross-sectoral thinking and how this approach can help Ethiopia unlock its full potential and achieve more sustainable, integrated development outcomes.