Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
Food system actors must implement systemic mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience across crop, livestock, agroforestry, and aquaculture systems.
These approaches can transform food production and build resilience in the communities most vulnerable to climate change, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. But they cannot be decided in isolation. While climate policy and action plans are decided at global, regional, and national levels, implementation is always carried out by local communities who need capacity-building, investments in infrastructure, and access to finance that is fit for purpose to manage transition risks and costs to do this effectively.
We know quite well how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change in the agricultural sector, but the key question is: what do policymakers need to support this development? At the heart of this is the need to make sustainability a viable business model for the farming sector. Farmers need more than a mandate to change—they need clear opportunities, incentives and practical pathways.”
Recommendations
for Decision-Makers
- Develop strategies and implementation plans that align with and are embedded within local, national, regional, and global frameworks while recognizing that their execution will be carried out by rural communities.
- Support farmers in implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions by amplifying their voices in decision-making and developing policies to account for local environmental, economic, and social factors.
- Increase food system stakeholder access to public and private finance to support climate transition approaches to reduce the risks and costs involved.
- Enhance farmer preparedness for the effects of climate change by investing in breeding improved varieties of animal and crop options suited for specific contexts and that meet farmers’ needs.
- Customize early warning systems on specific hazards to ensure they are adapted to local contexts. Use evidence-based models and predictions to plan effectively for different scenarios.
- Do not take a single-technology approach but instead consider bundling technologies together to deliver across food systems rather than just targeting one problem.
Challenges
3.6 Billion People
Globally, an estimated 3.6 billion people particularly across Africa, Asia, Central and South America and small island states, live in regions that are acutely vulnerable to climate impacts, including extreme weather events, degraded lands, and limited adaptive structure (IPCC 2023).
Climate Crisis = Water Crisis
High water demands in food production are unsustainable, currently amounting to 70% of global water withdrawals. Between 2007 and 2017, droughts affected more than 1.5 billion people globally (UNCCD, 2024), disrupting crop yields, livestock production, and fisheries.
Driver and Victim
Agriculture, forestry, and land use account for approximately 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, climate change is steadily diminishing the productivity of food systems worldwide.
Projections indicate substantial crop yield losses under worsening climate scenarios; for example, in a world that is 2°C warmer – an additional 189 million people will face hunger by 2050 (WFP, 2021).
Under Attack
Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns exacerbate the spread and severity of diseases that affect food and forage crops, livestock and fish, and crop pests that proliferate across wider geographical ranges in the warmer, more humid conditions.
What Food Systems Science Tells Us
To make food systems better able to respond to climate change risks and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), decision-makers need to develop strategies and implementation plans that are embedded at all levels—local, national, regional, and global—while ensuring rural communities can effectively implement them. This means that efforts to influence land use, restore degraded lands, protect forests, and strengthen resilience to the effects of climate change (for example, floods) need to provide incentives and incorporate support mechanisms. These could include accessible and affordable finance, access to technology (for instance, better climate forecasting or adapted seeds), and training in how to implement climate-smart approaches.
Adaptation and Mitigation Defined
Mitigation: A human intervention to reduce emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. A sink is any process, activity, or mechanism, that removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.
Adaptation: In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.
Supporting smallholder farmers to implement adaptation and mitigation solutions requires collaborative efforts to develop production systems that amplify their voices in decision-making. Policies must account for local environmental, economic, and social factors as the success (or failure) of adaptation and mitigation measures depends on the specific context. For example, in low- and middle-income countries, women make up around 43% of the agricultural labor force yet are often marginalized from decision-making processes. Ensuring they are included in making governance decisions that affect them is essential to the successful implementation of solutions.
The growing use of virtual advisory services is an example of how technologies are increasing farmer access to dynamic information, particularly on climate. One example of a digital support tool is the Crop Manager Advisory Service (Figure 9). This provides climate-adjusted crop and nutrient recommendations directly to rice farmers via mobile phones. Those who follow the recommendations are seeing an average 10% higher yields and additional income of USD 100 per hectare per crop. At the same time, these services gather valuable data to strengthen national monitoring systems and inform future policy decisions.
For a smallholder producer to shift farming practices, whether by changing crops, varieties, livestock breeds, or land management approaches, presents a risk. If the new crop variety fails, or no one buys it at the market, the consequences can devastate their livelihood. Access to finance to support climate transition approaches – whether from governments or private sources – reduces those risks (LSE, 2023). This includes innovative insurance schemes that mitigate risks associated with crop, livestock, and fisheries losses. An example is picture-based insurance bundling with climate information systems.
Repurposing subsidies through policy realignment can also unlock vital climate finance for smallholders, enabling them to adopt productivity enhancing practices that support their livelihoods and ecosystem health, furthering sustainable development and resilience-building at scale (CGIAR, 2024).
Water efficiency in production systems is another essential area for investment and interventions. A wide range of innovations and approaches are in development that can increase community resilience to water scarcity, drive down emissions, and promote social inclusion. At the broader landscape level, multi-stakeholder resource management tools that deploy digital technologies are increasingly helping decision-makers analyze and navigate trade-offs related to water use, for groundwater management in river basins. For example digital twins—virtual replicas—are being used for groundwater management, such as the twin of the Limpopo Basin.
Breeding innovations play a vital role in climate adaptation, enabling the development of more resilient animal and crop options that are suited for specific local contexts. These include heat-tolerant livestock and fish breeds, anddrought- and heat-tolerant food crops. The development of low-methane livestock and forages can also curb emissions, addressing a significant source of agricultural greenhouse gases. Aquatic food farming is also less harmful to the environment than many other kinds of farming and is an affordable source of essential nutrients.
While these technologies can support farmers, decision-makers must not focus on them as isolated solutions but consider a more end-to-end approach that bundles digital decision-support tools together. For example, by matching virtual advisory services with a suite of climate-adapted technologies(e.g., improved seeds, water-efficient technologies, crop diversification), and expanding access to finance and markets, smallholders can build more resilient, sustainable farming systems while reducing emissions.
We also must not forget the increasing importance of pre- and post-farm greenhouse gas emissions, for example from fertilizer manufacturing, transport, food processing, packaging, point of sale, during consumption and food disposal. Pre- and post-farm emissions are the largest component of food systems emissions and responsible for the growth in food system emissions.
Questions and Answers:
What Do Decision-Makers Need?
During the consultation, four critical questions emerged where decision-makers felt further guidance was needed. Here, we present a menu of answers to give a flavor of some of the available options and to show how they can be adapted to diverse local, national, and regional contexts.
More options are available here.
Decision-Maker Question: “How can we help farmers better prepare for unexpected weather and climate change?”
One Answer: Expanding global access to and use of climate information services for farmers
(Welcome to Shamba Shape Up – Shamba Shape Up)
Bundled climate information services (CIS) are helping farmers by combining weather forecasts with practical support like farming advice, and access to better seeds, fertilizers, and finance. These services do not just help farmers, they also help government and decision-makers prepare for climate risks. This helps them improve disaster preparedness and response, food and nutrition security, and infrastructure resilience. Banks, trade ministries, and energy providers also use CIS to make more informed financial and supply chain decisions.
Since 2022, CGIAR and its partners have expanded CIS services to reach over 1.5 million farmers in five countries. These services are designed to meet local needs and delivered using various radio, television, and digital platforms to ensure farmers get the information they need under changing and less predictable climate conditions. Compared to standalone climate information, bundled services offer greater value—digital climate advisory services can generate returns up to USD 70 for every single dollar invested (Ferdinand et al., 2021). Adding services like insurance can increase returns even further (Merry et al., 2023).
In Guatemala, nearly 70,000 farmers have received agroclimatic updates via radio, and 35,000—half of them women—have benefited from extension services through Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees (LTACs). More than half of those in Eastern Guatemala acted on or seriously considered recommendations from these committees. Participatory learning programs are also helping them apply the recommendations.
In Senegal, over 18,000 farmers—88% of whom are women—have received weather forecasts along with nutrition and farming advice. Zambia is using e-extension platforms, and the Philippines are distributing agrometeorological bulletins to reach as many farmers as possible.
Television has become a powerful tool for sharing climate information with farmers. In Kenya, the popular farming show Shamba Shape Upreaches over 8 million viewers, including 1.2 million farmers—41% of them women—who receive climate advice through the program. In Zambia, Munda Makeover reached nearly 200,000 farmers, half of them women. These shows are produced in collaboration with CGIAR, Ukama Ustawi, and Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA), and help farmers adopt climate-smart practices like using improved seeds and crop rotations. Take, for example, a maize farmer in Zambia struggling with unpredictable weather. Without the right information, they might plant at the wrong time and lose their entire crop, as happened in the 2023-2024 season. With access to season forecasts using different radio, TV, and digital channels, they can choose drought-tolerant seeds, apply water conservation techniques, and even secure finance to invest without fear of financial loss.
To further support smallholder farmers, especially women who face challenges in accessing financial services, CGIAR is launching ShambaShield with funding from the Ukama Ustawi Scaling Fund. This new initiative will help farmers build credit histories, secure loans, and reduce borrowing costs. Using Shamba Shape Up as a platform, ShambaShield will educate farmers on Risk Contingent Credit (RCC)—where loan repayments depend on weather conditions and may be covered by insurance in the event of extreme events like floods or droughts. These tailored financial products will give more farmers, especially women, the confidence and resources to invest in climate-smart practices.
Which Decision-Makers Will Find This Useful?
National and local policymakers such as those in Ministries of Environment, Finance, Disaster Management, Agriculture and Meteorological Services, extension officers and advisors, insurance providers designing index-based and risk-contingent products, financial institutions such as banks, Money Flow Index (MFI) and cooperatives offering climate-informed credit services, agribusinesses and cooperatives in terms of optimizing supply chains and managing risks, and non-governmental organizations and development agencies designing climate-smart interventions and social safety nets. Additionally, disaster preparedness and humanitarian organizations such as the World Food Programme and the Red Cross use can use climate services for drought response.
Resources for Decision-Makers
Contact
Evan Girvetz
Principal Scientist, CGIAR – Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT
e.girvetz@cgiar.org
Decision-Maker Question: “How can we best achieve national progress towards meeting global climate targets?”
One Answer: EnviroCow – a net zero future for sub-Saharan Africa’s smallholder cattle production
African livestock are vital to millions of livelihoods but face a dual challenge when it comes to climate change as they emit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—primarily methane—and are susceptible to climate change impacts such as heat stress and decreased availability of feed. Reducing their GHG footprint while retaining the efficiency of production is a challenge that many decision-makers are facing in the pursuit of meeting interlinked national targets on climate mitigation, food security, and rural economic development.
EnviroCow is an initiative that empowers small-scale dairy farmers across sub-Saharan Africa. It builds on an existing project that aimed to meet farmers’ demand for productive, climate-adapted dairy cows while addressing public concern over dairy cattle’s climate impact.
It provides access to cows that are better adapted to local conditions, thereby enhancing their income, and lowering feed costs and GHG emissions. The project is designed to help African countries develop climate mitigation strategies by examining the emissions of dairy cows in Africa and their adaptive capacity to address the impacts of climate change. The aim is to identify cows that are not only more efficient and productive but also have a minimized environmental footprint. Although African governments have prioritized the reduction of livestock GHG emissions, there remains significant data and research gaps. Data on the methane emissions of approximately 700 cows from up to 80 dairy farms is being gathered. The animals’ genetic traits and infrared signals in their milk will also be analyzed to identify chemical indicators linked to methane production.
Results from the Enviro-cow project will be integrated into the current certification system to rank bulls and cows in the Asian and African Dairy Genetic Gains (AADGG) program. Top-ranking bulls and cows assessed for their productivity and adaptive potential will also include assessments on their climate resilience and potential to produce fewer methane emissions through better feed utilization. These breeds will be available for breeding to communities through the national artificial insemination centers in Ethiopia and Tanzania. Data collected will also be used in Kenya’s inventory of greenhouse gas emissions under which Kenya reports its livestock under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The project is also active in the UK, Australia and Canada. Alongside this project, CGIAR is also looking at low-methane forage options to help reduce emissions from the livestock sector.
Which Decision-Makers Will Find This Useful?
Anyone working on issues around food and climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. National and local policymakers such as those in Ministries of Environment and Agriculture, agribusinesses and cooperatives, and non-governmental organizationsand development agencies designing climate-smart interventions. Those engaged with the Paris Agreement, United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Resources for Decision-Makers
Website
Contact
Raphael Mrode
Principal Scientist – Quantitative Geneticist in Dairy, CGIAR – International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
R.Mrode@cgiar.org
Decision-Maker Question: “How can we reduce agriculture’s water and greenhouse gas footprint?”
One Answer: SMART rice water management
Rice farming under continuous flooding is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Viet Nam, accounting for around 41% of agricultural emissions. Waterlogged conditions promote the growth of bacteria that produce methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide.
A more sustainable approach is Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD), an irrigation method where farmers periodically cut off irrigation water from fields before re-flooding them. This cycle allows oxygen back into the soil, reducing methane emissions while conserving water and maintaining rice yields. It also lowers the need for nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides, cutting emissions of nitrous oxide, another harmful greenhouse gas.
AWD is a key part of the ‘One Must Do, Five Reductions (1MD5R)’ package of approaches which encourages farmers to use certified seed (‘One Must Do’) and then adopt measures to reduce seed, fertilizer, and pesticide use, cut water consumption through AWD, and minimize post-harvest losses (‘Five Reductions’). These changes help make rice production more sustainable while maintaining profitability for farmers.
To introduce AWD in An Giang province, suitable rice-growing areas were identified based on climate, soil drainage, and farmers’ readiness to adopt new practices. Officials from Viet Nam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development refined these findings through discussions. A cost-benefit analysis, a monitoring framework, and resource mobilization efforts followed the process to support implementation (Figure 10).
Through this initiative, more than 33,000 farmers in two Mekong Delta provinces have received training on AWD, helping them understand how this method reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
Since 2016, Viet Nam has recognized AWD as a key strategy for addressing climate change, making it central to the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments under the Paris Agreement. Over the past decade, the government has reinforced its importance through eight decrees, and AWD is a central component of Viet Nam’s plan to develop one million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice by 2030.
Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal have also been adopting AWD, where it has reduced the amount of water needed for irrigation by 38%, and increased water productivity by 33%.
Which Decision-Makers Will Find This Useful?
Ministries of Agriculture, Water, and Environment and anyone working on issues around food, climate change mitigation, and water management. Representatives engaging in international processes like the Paris Agreement, United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Resources for Decision-Makers
Contact
Bjoern Ole Sander
Senior Scientist, Climate Change Specialist, CGIAR – International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
b.sander@irri.org
CGIAR – AfricaRice, AfricaRice@cgiar.org
Decision-Maker Question: “How can we develop the varieties farmers tell us they need to adapt to climate change more quickly?”
One Answer: Tropical potatoes: a public-private partnership in speed breeding
Potato is the world’s most important non-cereal crop and ranks third in global human consumption after wheat and rice. Smallholder farmers grow it in over 100 countries across 18 million hectares, making it a key staple for food security, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. Over the past 40 years, cultivation has expanded, particularly in Asia and Africa, through increased demand for processed food products and because of potato’s ability to withstand climate change as it produces more food per unit of water than any other major crop. However, many smallholder farmers struggle to access high-quality, disease-resistant potato varieties suited to market and consumer demands—which vary by income, culture, and region.
The Tropically Adapted Potato Varieties (TAP5) initiative develops potato varieties adapted to tropical climates for both fresh consumption and processing. This effort represents a breakthrough in public-private collaborative breeding programs. It is currently operational in Viet Nam, Peru and The Netherlands.
It began as a collaboration between CGIAR and HZPC, a Dutch private-sector breeding partner, to support Vietnamese farmers, with plans to expand to Asia and Africa. By combining CGIAR’s climate-resilient, disease-resistant breeding material with HZPC’s high-yield, processing-friendly varieties, the initiative presents a win-win opportunity.
Advanced genetic tools have significantly reduced breeding timelines. For example, HCIP210, the first commercial variety adapted to tropical conditions,was developed and registered in less than eight years, much faster than the usual 12–13 years, offering high yields, early bulking (the rapid expansion in size), and an outstanding resistance to late blight, the main disease affecting potato in areas affected by poverty, heat, drought, and disease. Deploying state-of-the-art breeding technologies in Viet Nam has reduced costs by approximately 35%.
TAP5 also introduces an innovative business model for distributing high-quality seed potatoes (tubers to grow new potato plants that are genetically identical to the parent). HZPC has the first right to commercialize new TAP5 varieties in different countries, paying royalties to CGIAR, which reinvests in further breeding. If HZPC does not commercialize a variety in a given country, CGIAR or national programs can release it, to ensure farmers still benefit. Both organizations will also contribute to the Plant Treaty on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, a global agreement that supports the sharing and protection of essential seeds and plant materials. This is the first time a CGIAR Private Public Partnership in breeding research has established a direct financial contribution to the Treaty.
A breakthrough in Viet Nam has been the modification, simplification, and acceleration of registration procedures for vegetatively propagated crops like potato that are grown from plant parts like stems, leaves, and roots rather than a conventional seed. Previously, high costs and large seed volume requirements made registration almost impossible, discouraging private sector investment. The revised process now creates new opportunities for private sector innovation, not only for potato, but similar crops like sweetpotato and cassava.
TAP5 is expanding rapidly. HCIP210 is set for commercialization in Viet Nam and India, with further rollout in Nepal, Myanmar, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Malawi, and Uganda. In these countries, national research programs will tailor the varieties for both highland and lowland farming, with seed potatoes produced in CGIAR or partner locations. The initiative is expected to cover over 70% of tropical potato-growing regions over the next few years, a number that will continue to increase as climate change reshapes agriculture in low- and middle-income countries.
TAP5 also supports national climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. In Viet Nam, for example, it helps reduce methane emissions as potatoes can be integrated into rice-based farming systems. Because potatoes can be grown without plowing between plantings, they reduce emissions associated with traditional rice farming, including straw burning (the practice of setting fire to leftover stubble after harvest).
Which Decision-Makers Will Find This Useful?
Ministries of Agriculture, Rural Development and Plant Protection (in terms of pesticide reduction), Private Sector (in terms of new markets for innovations mitigating and offsetting GHG emissions and reducing pesticide use).
Resources for Decision-Makers
Documentation
New Variety Registration Documents for HCIP210” published by Ministry of Agriculture And Rural Development, Viet Nam
Contact
Hugo Campos
Deputy Director-General, Science & Innovation, CGIAR – International Potato Center (CIP)
h.campos@cgiar.org
Looking Ahead
The Independent Science for Development Council (ISDC) foresight analysis highlights urgent challenges that require immediate attention from policymakers and scientists. One of the most pressing is the accelerating impact of climate change, projected to internally displace 216 million people by 2050 (UNHCR, 2023). This growing displacement puts strain on food systems and increases the risk of conflict and migration.
Advanced breeding techniques are making it faster and more cost-effective to develop climate-resilient crops, fodder, livestock, and fish. These innovations help counter the rising threat of pests and diseases, which are spreading due to climate change, such as wheat blast and Fusarium head blight—both of which severely impact cereal crops.
While much focus is placed on rising average temperatures, the more immediate challenge is the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves. These events substantially reduce crop yields and alter nutrient levels, but their timing and location remain difficult to predict. Breeding efforts are already showing promise, with modern wheat varieties demonstrating improved resilience to heat and drought. But there is much more work to be done.
Technology will play a key role in understanding and mitigating climate risks. Satellite-based remote sensing already provides valuable data on crop health, land use, and adaptation progress at local, national, and regional levels. Artificial intelligence is enhancing early warning systems for droughts and floods, while digital twin models are transforming river basin management by simplifying complex climate and water data. Digital tools will have a role in enhancing all aspects of food, land and water systems, but more work is needed to reduce capacity gaps and other challenges for smallholder farmers and other stakeholders.
Current research capacity investment in root, tuber, and banana crops is considerably lower than cereals and livestock. Decision-makers should consider greater investment in these crops, as these can benefit from shifting climate conditions if the right strategies are in place—such as adjusted planting schedules and improved seed varieties. They can also grow in marginal conditions where other crops will not grow. Their high energy supply yield per hectare demonstrates their potential to help ensure food and nutrition security and increase incomes across low- and middle-income countries (Petsakos, et al., 2019). Future science strategy and development in the context of climate change is also being supported by foresight, and trade-off analysis (Zurek, et al., 2021).
At both national and global levels, scientific research is guiding the transition to more climate-resilient, lower-emission food systems. CGIAR, in collaboration with partners, has contributed to key international reports, including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report and the agricultural chapter of the 2024 Breakthrough Agenda Report Agriculture. These efforts help shape policies that strengthen global food and nutrition security in the face of climate change. 2025 is shaping up to be a year challenged by instability, uncertainty, and increasing signs of climate change as we head towards 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil—the world’s largest event for climate negotiations.
